Brent crude settled at $109.86 on Friday, Oct 16, its highest close since May 19. In September's inflation report, gasoline alone made up over half of the monthly increase.
The video follows that barrel from supply to your budget to the Fed. Two supply stories moved oil the same week: less crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters, citing Kpler) and Ukraine's strike on Russia's Ryazan refinery. Diesel took the bigger hit. Distillate stocks rose last week, but they're still thin going into heating season.
A rate move can't lower an oil price set by Hormuz risk and refinery outages. Sticky energy inflation does leave the Fed less room to wait.
The numbers
$109.86 Brent settle on Fri Oct 16, 2026, the highest close since May 19 (Dow Jones Market Data). It touched $110 during the day (Reuters).
+$1.26 per gallon regular gas vs a year earlier: $4.30 on Oct 19 vs $3.04 (AAA). That works out to about $19 more for a 15-gallon fill-up (our arithmetic).
$6.32 per gallon diesel on Oct 19, under the record $6.53 set Sept 22 and up from $3.63 a year earlier (AAA).
+1.7M barrels U.S. distillate stocks in the week ended Oct 16, to 104.3M, about 9.7% below a year earlier (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, released Oct 21).
3.7% CPI inflation in September vs a year earlier, with energy up 20.4%. Gasoline rose 9.1% in the month and made up over half of the monthly increase (BLS, released Oct 14).
+3.0% average hourly pay vs a year earlier in September (BLS Employment Situation). After inflation, real hourly pay was −0.7% (BLS Real Earnings).
Oct 27–28 next Fed meeting. Statement at 2:00 PM ET on Oct 28 (Federal Reserve).
